Krebs

[Gerry Storm]

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This is a copy of the latest newsletter from AC Krebs. I find him to be =
a fearless and tireless reporter, mainly a watchdog of the big ag =
interests. His contacts often provide stories not found in the regular =
(corporate controlled) press. Enjoy.
Gerry

SEN. JAY ROCKEFELLER SEEKS FBI=20
INVESTIGATION OF FORGED DOCUMENTS=20
BEING USED TO DECEIVE PUBLIC ON=20
IRAQ'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM=20
KEN GUGGENHEIM, ASSOCIATED PRESS: The top Democrat on the Senate =
Intelligence Committee asked the FBI on Friday to investigate forged =
documents the Bush administration used as evidence against Saddam =
Hussein=20

Sen. Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia said he was uneasy about a =
possible campaign to deceive the public about the status of Iraq's =
nuclear program.=20

An investigation should "at a minimum help to allay any concerns" that =
the government was involved in the creation of the documents to build =
support for administration policies, Rockefeller wrote in a letter to =
FBI Director Robert Mueller.=20

Secretary of State Colin Powell has denied the U.S. government had any =
hand in creating the false documents.=20

"It came from other sources," Powell told a House committee Thursday. =
"We were aware of this piece of evidence, and it was provided in good =
faith to the inspectors."=20

Rockefeller asked the FBI to determine the source of the documents, the =
sophistication of the forgeries, the motivation of those responsible, =
why intelligence agencies didn't recognize them as forgeries and whether =
they are part of a larger disinformation campaign. The FBI did not =
immediately respond to a request for comment.=20

The documents indicated that Iraq tried to by uranium from Niger, the =
West African nation that is the third-largest producer of mined uranium, =
Niger's largest export. The documents had been provided to U.S. =
officials by a third country, which has not been identified.=20

A U.S. government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, =
said it was unclear who first created the documents. The official said =
American suspicions remain about an Iraq-Niger uranium connection =
because of other, still-credible evidence that the official refused to =
specify.=20

In December, the State Department used the information to support its =
case that Iraq was lying about its weapons programs. But on March 7, =
Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told =
the U.N. Security Council that the documents were forgeries.=20

Rockefeller said U.S. worries about Iraqi nuclear weapons were not based =
primarily on the documents, but "there is a possibility that the =
fabrication of these documents may be part of a larger deception =
campaign aimed at manipulating public opinion and foreign policy =
regarding Iraq."=20

At a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing Thursday, Powell said the =
State Department had not participated "any way in any falsification."=20

Rep. David Obey of Wisconsin, the committee's top Democrat, noted a =
Washington Post report that said a foreign government might have been =
conducting a deception campaign to win support for military action =
against Iraq. When Obey asked Powell if he could say which country that =
was, Powell replied, "I can't with confidence."=20

The Niger documents marked the second time that ElBaradei has challenged =
evidence presented by the United States meant to illustrate Iraq's =
nuclear weapons program. He also rejected the U.S. position that =
aluminum tubes imported by Iraq were intended to make nuclear bombs.=20

ElBaradei has said his inspectors have found no evidence that Saddam has =
revived its nuclear weapons program.=20
 =20

SPECULATION ON AUTHORSHIP=20
OF FORGED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS=20
POINTS TO NIGER !?!?! . . . OR ISRAEL ???=20

JUSTIN RAIMONDO, ANTIWAR.COM: In the midst of a furious debate over the =
key role of pro-Israel ideologues in pushing us into war, the FBI has =
announced it is looking into the possibility that "a foreign government =
is using a deception campaign to foster support for military action =
against Iraq." Remember the forged "evidence" the U.S. submitted to the =
UN to support their contention that Iraq sought fissionable =
materials...?=20

Unless it's the African nation of Niger --- where Iraq was supposedly =
trying to buy uranium to develop nukes --- that is desperately trying to =
drag us into war, for obscure reasons of its own, the identity of this =
mysterious "third country" is no mystery.=20

"By way of deception, thou shalt do war" --- the Mossad, Israel's =
legendary intelligence agency, have more than lived up to their motto in =
the past, and, in this instance, seem to have surpassed themselves. To =
feed the U.S. such a crude forgery --- the fake letters were rife with =
fairly obvious and easily checkable errors --- and have Colin Powell =
take it to the UN as "proof" of Iraqi perfidy was a calculated insult, =
and soon had the desired result...=20
 =20

NOBEL PRIZE LAUREATE ESQUIVEL:=20
"BUSH IS SETTING THE WORLD ON FIRE"=20

TIMOTHY APPLEBY, TORONTO GLOBE & MAIL: The Bush administration's drive =
to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein is so aggressive that even before a =
war has started its repercussions are being felt in every corner of the =
world, says Nobel Peace Prize laureate Adolfo Perez Esquivel.=20

The Argentine, who won the 1980 Peace Prize, views President George W. =
Bush's plans for attacking Iraq with great alarm. "Bush is setting the =
world on fire," he said.=20

Mr. Perez Esquivel, a native of Buenos Aires, is an architect, sculptor =
and teacher. He won the 1980 prize for his resistance to Argentina's =
Dirty War against leftist rebels. Imprisoned and tortured, he was freed =
with help from Amnesty International and the Pope.=20

At 71, he leads the Latin American human-rights group Servicio, Paz y =
Justicia, and travels widely on behalf of the antiwar movement. He has =
been in Toronto and Ottawa under the auspices of the church group =
KAIROS: Canadian Ecumenical Justice Initiatives.=20

After visiting Iraq last year for a firsthand look at what 12 years of =
sanctions and U.S. bombing attacks have done to its battered =
infrastructure, Mr. Perez Esquivel scoffed at the notion that Iraq poses =
any significant threat. A U.S. attack, on the other hand, would open "a =
Pandora's box, threatening to set free the demons of death and =
destruction," he wrote recently.=20

"The chief danger in the world today is not Saddam Hussein," Mr. Perez =
Esquivel said. "It is the United States."=20

Like other critics of U.S. policy, he perceives in the United States an =
angry, isolated country inflicting lasting damage on itself. Mr. Perez =
Esquivel reaches for some words by Abraham Lincoln, quoted by President =
John F. Kennedy at the United Nations in 1962.=20

"What Lincoln said more than a century ago is that if the United States =
doesn't defend life, then it faces the prospect of self-destruction."=20

Yet unstable as the planet is, Mr. Perez Esquivel fears surging =
anti-Americanism will make it far more so. Across Latin America, he =
says, the antiwar sentiment, which has prompted big demonstrations in =
half a dozen countries, is vigorously feeding long-term resentment over =
U.S. policies on trade, tariffs, militarization and debt.=20

"What's happening with Iraq is not isolated, it's part of a global =
phenomenon. When we see the installation of U.S. military bases =
throughout Latin America, when we look at [American interference] in =
countries such as Venezuela and Colombia and Panama, we have to ask =
ourselves what's going on.=20

"Lots of people think it and won't say it, but I will say it: The United =
States is seeking to control the world. That's why we are seeing the =
reaction in so many countries."=20
 =20

MILLIONS THROUGHOUT EUROPE=20
IN WORK STOPPAGE TO PROTEST=20
U.S.-LED MILITARY ACTION IN IRAQ=20

ASSOCIATED PRESS:  Millions of Europeans stopped work March 15 to =
protest a possible attack on Iraq, as opposition to U.S.-led military =
action rippled across the globe.=20

Labor union spokesmen said millions of workers in Spain, Germany, Italy, =
Switzerland, Cyprus and other countries answered a continent-wide call =
to strike for 15 minutes to press for peace.=20

In Germany, where polls show an overwhelming majority of people oppose a =
war, the strikes briefly halted vehicle production at three Volkswagen =
factories and a DaimlerChrysler plant. Representatives of Italian labor =
unions said workers put down their tools from Sicily in the south to =
Turin in the north.=20

While German, French and Russian leaders are spearheading resistance to =
a military assault, backers of Washington's hard-line, such as prime =
ministers Jose Maria Aznar of Spain and John Howard of Australia, are =
defying hostile public opinion.=20

"Not acting to rid the world of weapons of mass destruction is neither =
politically nor morally acceptable," Aznar said at a meeting of his =
Popular Party.=20

Howard was hounded by protesters in Adelaide. Demonstrators threw eggs =
and tomatoes at his car and brought traffic to a standstill.=20

EDITORS NOTE: This story appeared on Page A17 of the March 15 Washington =
Post.=20
 =20

ENTIRELY POSSIBLE AMERICANS=20
MAY NOT LIKE THE NEW WORLD=20
IT IS ABOUT TO CREATE WITH IRAQI WAR=20

MARTIN WOLF, FINANCIAL TIMES, March 14: The U.S. and the UK will attack =
Saddam Hussein's Iraq next week. That seems close to certain. George W. =
Bush, the U.S. president, made up his mind on war a long time ago. The =
question has never been whether there would be a war but when and =
whether the rest of the world would give one its blessing.=20

This moment defines a new era. The world's "sole superpower" will =
eliminate a despicable regime that does, nevertheless, present no =
immediate threat. It will do so regardless of the opinions of Iraq's =
neighbours, most of its own allies and the rest of the world's sizeable =
powers. Of the latter, the UK alone remains loyal, at great risk to the =
political future of Tony Blair, its prime minister.=20

Welcome to the post-post-cold-war world. The new world of U.S. primacy =
and aggressive unilateral action began with the terrorist outrage of =
September 11 2001 and the war on Afghanistan. But the war on Mr Hussein =
is about to turn these events into an epoch.=20

What then may be its consequences? To analyse that question, we must =
start with the ideas that animate the U.S. Since September 11, the U.S. =
administration has taken as its watchword an old Latin tag: the safety =
of the republic is the supreme law. Having a duty to protect its =
citizens, the state is not merely entitled but obliged to take the =
required actions. The more powerful the state, the more it is able --- =
and obliged --- to do.=20

The debate within the administration is only between two rival versions =
of this doctrine. The first camp believes it is within America's power =
--- and so in its interests --- to remake its enemies. This is a =
contemporary form of 19th- century liberal imperialism. The second =
believes it is within America's power --- and so in its interests --- =
merely to destroy its enemies. This is a contemporary form of =
19th-century nationalism.=20

Events, not the ideas, will determine which camp wins. I believe =
exhaustion is more likely to make it the second, whereupon the U.S. will =
attempt to turn itself into a fortress. But whichever side does win, =
here are five plausible implications of these doctrines for geopolitics, =
both short and long term.=20

First, after the conquest of Iraq, the U.S. will be confronted by the =
reconstruction of a fractured land in a failing and embittered region. =
But, because of Iraq's pivotal place within the Middle East, it will =
also face the still more difficult task of remaking that region. Should =
it fail, it risks abandoning it in a still more embittered state.=20

Second, in an anarchy the strong do what they can, the weak prate of =
morality and those in between cluster for comfort. The alliance between =
France, Russia and China inside the United Nations Security Council is a =
predictable response. Such is U.S. strength, however, that this =
coalition will remain fragile for the foreseeable future. A =
countervailing coalition can become a force only if Europe unites or if =
China enjoys at least two more decades of rapid economic growth.=20

Third, European unity may in fact be closer than many suppose, as a =
result of Mr Blair's strategy. The UK is no longer a bridge between the =
U.S. and Europe but is now anchored, by Mr Blair's choice, to the U.S. =
end. If this decision, taken against the wishes of a large part of his =
own party and the country, is perceived to be a disaster, the UK's =
long-standing policy of aligning itself with the U.S. will be tested to =
breaking point. One outcome could be the end of Mr Blair's career. =
Another could be a decision by the British elite that safety now lies =
with the countervailing coalition. That, in turn, would greatly enhance =
Europe's capacity and will to pursue an independent policy.=20

Fourth, the search for absolute security makes others absolutely =
insecure. Any country actually or potentially viewed as a threat by the =
U.S. must, by America's own logic, attempt to make itself safe by =
obtaining weapons of mass destruction. This administration seems to care =
little about proliferation. But it does care about proliferation into =
hostile hands.  That seems more likely to be accelerated than slowed by =
the policy of pre-emptive action: Mr Hussein is to be destroyed; Kim =
Jong-il seems safe.  The lesson cannot be lost on tyrants.=20

Last, the U.S. is also adopting the ancient maxim that enemies may hate =
as long as they fear. Hatred and humiliation breed terrorism. It is as =
well that the U.S. is readying itself for a long war on its enemies. It =
is no more likely to crush terrorism by military means than Ariel Sharon =
is to achieve the same aim for Israel.=20

Now turn to the economic consequences. Many suppose that, after the war =
is over, the uncertainties now bedevilling the world economy will lift, =
confidence will return and the world economy will recover.=20

That, I hope, is true. I fear it is not. One reason is that Mr Hussein =
may damage the Iraqi oil fields, making an already tight oil market =
still tighter and keeping prices high. Further military actions also =
seem conceivable. Conflict with Iran may follow; North Korea looms =
ahead. Beyond this, the U..S. is in the grip of its post-bubble =
adjustment. While the corporate sector is some way through, the =
household sector has hardly begun. Since Japan and Germany, the world's =
second and third largest economies, are suffering from chronically weak =
domestic demand, a strong global recovery is unlikely to lie on the =
other side.=20

Yet there is a longer-term concern. The global economic order rests on =
co-operation, above all in international trade. Even the U.S. cannot =
achieve global prosperity on its own. Nor can it expect others to obey =
rules that it refuses to follow itself. Here, then, it is bound by the =
idea of international law. Yet how long will a country used to being =
unquestioned judge and jury in its own cause accept the judgments of =
others in its economic life?=20

This moment will shape our world, for good or ill, for years, maybe =
decades, to come. But let me be clear. I am not arguing that the war is =
an error; strong arguments can be made in its favour. I am not saying =
its opponents' position is credible; they rely on the permanent presence =
of U.S. and UK armies. I am not saying the Middle East does not need to =
be remade; it would be wonderful if it could be.=20

I am saying that if the U.S. behaves solely as a 19th-century power --- =
be it liberal imperialist or nationalist --- of a kind it once abhorred, =
it will promote a 19th-century world. Examples matter; great examples =
matter greatly. The American people must ask themselves whether this =
truly is the world they wish to inhabit.=20
 =20


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<DIV>This is a copy of the latest newsletter from AC Krebs. I find him =
to be a=20
fearless and tireless reporter, mainly a watchdog of the big ag =
interests. His=20
contacts often provide stories not found in the regular (corporate =
controlled)=20
press. Enjoy.</DIV>
<DIV>Gerry</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2><B><FONT size=3D+2>SEN. JAY ROCKEFELLER SEEKS =
FBI</FONT></B>=20
<BR><B><FONT size=3D+2>INVESTIGATION OF FORGED DOCUMENTS</FONT></B> =
<BR><B><FONT=20
size=3D+2>BEING USED TO DECEIVE PUBLIC ON</FONT></B> <BR><B><FONT =
size=3D+2>IRAQ'S=20
NUCLEAR PROGRAM</FONT></B>=20
<P><B>KEN GUGGENHEIM, ASSOCIATED PRESS</B>: The top Democrat on the =
Senate=20
Intelligence Committee asked the FBI on Friday to investigate forged =
documents=20
the Bush administration used as evidence against Saddam Hussein=20
<P>Sen. Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia said he was uneasy about a =
possible=20
campaign to deceive the public about the status of Iraq's nuclear =
program.=20
<P>An investigation should "at a minimum help to allay any concerns" =
that the=20
government was involved in the creation of the documents to build =
support for=20
administration policies, Rockefeller wrote in a letter to FBI Director =
Robert=20
Mueller.=20
<P>Secretary of State Colin Powell has denied the U.S. government had =
any hand=20
in creating the false documents.=20
<P>"It came from other sources," Powell told a House committee Thursday. =
"We=20
were aware of this piece of evidence, and it was provided in good faith =
to the=20
inspectors."=20
<P>Rockefeller asked the FBI to determine the source of the documents, =
the=20
sophistication of the forgeries, the motivation of those responsible, =
why=20
intelligence agencies didn't recognize them as forgeries and whether =
they are=20
part of a larger disinformation campaign. The FBI did not immediately =
respond to=20
a request for comment.=20
<P>The documents indicated that Iraq tried to by uranium from Niger, the =
West=20
African nation that is the third-largest producer of mined uranium, =
Niger's=20
largest export. The documents had been provided to U.S. officials by a =
third=20
country, which has not been identified.=20
<P>A U.S. government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, =
said it=20
was unclear who first created the documents. The official said American=20
suspicions remain about an Iraq-Niger uranium connection because of =
other,=20
still-credible evidence that the official refused to specify.=20
<P>In December, the State Department used the information to support its =
case=20
that Iraq was lying about its weapons programs. But on March 7, Mohammed =

ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the U.N. =

Security Council that the documents were forgeries.=20
<P>Rockefeller said U.S. worries about Iraqi nuclear weapons were not =
based=20
primarily on the documents, but "there is a possibility that the =
fabrication of=20
these documents may be part of a larger deception campaign aimed at =
manipulating=20
public opinion and foreign policy regarding Iraq."=20
<P>At a House Appropriations subcommittee hearing Thursday, Powell said =
the=20
State Department had not participated "any way in any falsification."=20
<P>Rep. David Obey of Wisconsin, the committee's top Democrat, noted a=20
<U>Washington Post</U> report that said a foreign government might have =
been=20
conducting a deception campaign to win support for military action =
against Iraq.=20
When Obey asked Powell if he could say which country that was, Powell =
replied,=20
"I can't with confidence."=20
<P>The Niger documents marked the second time that ElBaradei has =
challenged=20
evidence presented by the United States meant to illustrate Iraq's =
nuclear=20
weapons program. He also rejected the U.S. position that aluminum tubes =
imported=20
by Iraq were intended to make nuclear bombs.=20
<P>ElBaradei has said his inspectors have found no evidence that Saddam =
has=20
revived its nuclear weapons program. <BR>&nbsp;=20
<P><B><FONT size=3D+2>SPECULATION ON AUTHORSHIP</FONT></B> <BR><B><FONT =
size=3D+2>OF=20
FORGED NUCLEAR DOCUMENTS</FONT></B> <BR><B><FONT size=3D+2>POINTS TO =
NIGER !?!?! .=20
. . OR ISRAEL ???</FONT></B>=20
<P><B>JUSTIN RAIMONDO, ANTIWAR.COM</B>: In the midst of a furious debate =
over=20
the key role of pro-Israel ideologues in pushing us into war, the FBI =
has=20
announced it is looking into the possibility that "a foreign government =
is using=20
a deception campaign to foster support for military action against =
Iraq."=20
Remember the forged "evidence" the U.S. submitted to the UN to support =
their=20
contention that Iraq sought fissionable materials...?=20
<P>Unless it's the African nation of Niger --- where Iraq was supposedly =
trying=20
to buy uranium to develop nukes --- that is desperately trying to drag =
us into=20
war, for obscure reasons of its own, the identity of this mysterious =
"third=20
country" is no mystery.=20
<P>"By way of deception, thou shalt do war" --- the Mossad, Israel's =
legendary=20
intelligence agency, have more than lived up to their motto in the past, =
and, in=20
this instance, seem to have surpassed themselves. To feed the U.S. such =
a crude=20
forgery --- the fake letters were rife with fairly obvious and easily =
checkable=20
errors --- and have Colin Powell take it to the UN as "proof" of Iraqi =
perfidy=20
was a calculated insult, and soon had the desired result... <BR>&nbsp;=20
<P><B><FONT size=3D+2>NOBEL PRIZE LAUREATE ESQUIVEL:</FONT></B> =
<BR><B><FONT=20
size=3D+2>"BUSH IS SETTING THE WORLD ON FIRE"</FONT></B>=20
<P><B>TIMOTHY APPLEBY, TORONTO GLOBE &amp; MAIL</B>: The Bush =
administration's=20
drive to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein is so aggressive that even =
before a=20
war has started its repercussions are being felt in every corner of the =
world,=20
says Nobel Peace Prize laureate Adolfo Perez Esquivel.=20
<P>The Argentine, who won the 1980 Peace Prize, views President George =
W. Bush's=20
plans for attacking Iraq with great alarm. "Bush is setting the world on =
fire,"=20
he said.=20
<P>Mr. Perez Esquivel, a native of Buenos Aires, is an architect, =
sculptor and=20
teacher. He won the 1980 prize for his resistance to Argentina's Dirty =
War=20
against leftist rebels. Imprisoned and tortured, he was freed with help =
from=20
Amnesty International and the Pope.=20
<P>At 71, he leads the Latin American human-rights group Servicio, Paz y =

Justicia, and travels widely on behalf of the antiwar movement. He has =
been in=20
Toronto and Ottawa under the auspices of the church group KAIROS: =
Canadian=20
Ecumenical Justice Initiatives.=20
<P>After visiting Iraq last year for a firsthand look at what 12 years =
of=20
sanctions and U.S. bombing attacks have done to its battered =
infrastructure, Mr.=20
Perez Esquivel scoffed at the notion that Iraq poses any significant =
threat. A=20
U.S. attack, on the other hand, would open "a Pandora's box, threatening =
to set=20
free the demons of death and destruction," he wrote recently.=20
<P>"The chief danger in the world today is not Saddam Hussein," Mr. =
Perez=20
Esquivel said. "It is the United States."=20
<P>Like other critics of U.S. policy, he perceives in the United States =
an=20
angry, isolated country inflicting lasting damage on itself. Mr. Perez =
Esquivel=20
reaches for some words by Abraham Lincoln, quoted by President John F. =
Kennedy=20
at the United Nations in 1962.=20
<P>"What Lincoln said more than a century ago is that if the United =
States=20
doesn't defend life, then it faces the prospect of self-destruction."=20
<P>Yet unstable as the planet is, Mr. Perez Esquivel fears surging=20
anti-Americanism will make it far more so. Across Latin America, he =
says, the=20
antiwar sentiment, which has prompted big demonstrations in half a dozen =

countries, is vigorously feeding long-term resentment over U.S. policies =
on=20
trade, tariffs, militarization and debt.=20
<P>"What's happening with Iraq is not isolated, it's part of a global=20
phenomenon. When we see the installation of U.S. military bases =
throughout Latin=20
America, when we look at [American interference] in countries such as =
Venezuela=20
and Colombia and Panama, we have to ask ourselves what's going on.=20
<P>"Lots of people think it and won't say it, but I will say it: The =
United=20
States is seeking to control the world. That's why we are seeing the =
reaction in=20
so many countries." <BR>&nbsp;=20
<P><B><FONT size=3D+2>MILLIONS THROUGHOUT EUROPE</FONT></B> <BR><B><FONT =

size=3D+2>IN WORK STOPPAGE TO PROTEST</FONT></B> <BR><B><FONT =
size=3D+2>U.S.-LED=20
MILITARY ACTION IN IRAQ</FONT></B>=20
<P><B>ASSOCIATED PRESS</B>:&nbsp; Millions of Europeans stopped work =
March 15 to=20
protest a possible attack on Iraq, as opposition to U.S.-led military =
action=20
rippled across the globe.=20
<P>Labor union spokesmen said millions of workers in Spain, Germany, =
Italy,=20
Switzerland, Cyprus and other countries answered a continent-wide call =
to strike=20
for 15 minutes to press for peace.=20
<P>In Germany, where polls show an overwhelming majority of people =
oppose a war,=20
the strikes briefly halted vehicle production at three Volkswagen =
factories and=20
a DaimlerChrysler plant. Representatives of Italian labor unions said =
workers=20
put down their tools from Sicily in the south to Turin in the north.=20
<P>While German, French and Russian leaders are spearheading resistance =
to a=20
military assault, backers of Washington's hard-line, such as prime =
ministers=20
Jose Maria Aznar of Spain and John Howard of Australia, are defying =
hostile=20
public opinion.=20
<P>"Not acting to rid the world of weapons of mass destruction is =
neither=20
politically nor morally acceptable," Aznar said at a meeting of his =
Popular=20
Party.=20
<P>Howard was hounded by protesters in Adelaide. Demonstrators threw =
eggs and=20
tomatoes at his car and brought traffic to a standstill.=20
<P><B>EDITORS NOTE</B>: This story appeared on Page A17 of the March 15=20
<U>Washington Post.</U> <BR>&nbsp;=20
<P><B><FONT size=3D+2>ENTIRELY POSSIBLE AMERICANS</FONT></B> =
<BR><B><FONT=20
size=3D+2>MAY NOT LIKE THE NEW WORLD</FONT></B> <BR><B><FONT =
size=3D+2>IT IS ABOUT=20
TO CREATE WITH IRAQI WAR</FONT></B>=20
<P><B>MARTIN WOLF, FINANCIAL TIMES</B>, <B>March 14</B>: The U.S. and =
the UK=20
will attack Saddam Hussein's Iraq next week. That seems close to =
certain. George=20
W. Bush, the U.S. president, made up his mind on war a long time ago. =
The=20
question has never been whether there would be a war but when and =
whether the=20
rest of the world would give one its blessing.=20
<P>This moment defines a new era. The world's "sole superpower" will =
eliminate a=20
despicable regime that does, nevertheless, present no immediate threat. =
It will=20
do so regardless of the opinions of Iraq's neighbours, most of its own =
allies=20
and the rest of the world's sizeable powers. Of the latter, the UK alone =
remains=20
loyal, at great risk to the political future of Tony Blair, its prime =
minister.=20
<P>Welcome to the post-post-cold-war world. The new world of U.S. =
primacy and=20
aggressive unilateral action began with the terrorist outrage of =
September 11=20
2001 and the war on Afghanistan. But the war on Mr Hussein is about to =
turn=20
these events into an epoch.=20
<P>What then may be its consequences? To analyse that question, we must =
start=20
with the ideas that animate the U.S. Since September 11, the U.S. =
administration=20
has taken as its watchword an old Latin tag: the safety of the republic =
is the=20
supreme law. Having a duty to protect its citizens, the state is not =
merely=20
entitled but obliged to take the required actions. The more powerful the =
state,=20
the more it is able --- and obliged --- to do.=20
<P>The debate within the administration is only between two rival =
versions of=20
this doctrine. The first camp believes it is within America's power --- =
and so=20
in its interests --- to remake its enemies. This is a contemporary form =
of 19th-=20
century liberal imperialism. The second believes it is within America's =
power=20
--- and so in its interests --- merely to destroy its enemies. This is a =

contemporary form of 19th-century nationalism.=20
<P>Events, not the ideas, will determine which camp wins. I believe =
exhaustion=20
is more likely to make it the second, whereupon the U.S. will attempt to =
turn=20
itself into a fortress. But whichever side does win, here are five =
plausible=20
implications of these doctrines for geopolitics, both short and long =
term.=20
<P>First, after the conquest of Iraq, the U.S. will be confronted by the =

reconstruction of a fractured land in a failing and embittered region. =
But,=20
because of Iraq's pivotal place within the Middle East, it will also =
face the=20
still more difficult task of remaking that region. Should it fail, it =
risks=20
abandoning it in a still more embittered state.=20
<P>Second, in an anarchy the strong do what they can, the weak prate of =
morality=20
and those in between cluster for comfort. The alliance between France, =
Russia=20
and China inside the United Nations Security Council is a predictable =
response.=20
Such is U.S. strength, however, that this coalition will remain fragile =
for the=20
foreseeable future. A countervailing coalition can become a force only =
if Europe=20
unites or if China enjoys at least two more decades of rapid economic =
growth.=20
<P>Third, European unity may in fact be closer than many suppose, as a =
result of=20
Mr Blair's strategy. The UK is no longer a bridge between the U.S. and =
Europe=20
but is now anchored, by Mr Blair's choice, to the U.S. end. If this =
decision,=20
taken against the wishes of a large part of his own party and the =
country, is=20
perceived to be a disaster, the UK's long-standing policy of aligning =
itself=20
with the U.S. will be tested to breaking point. One outcome could be the =
end of=20
Mr Blair's career. Another could be a decision by the British elite that =
safety=20
now lies with the countervailing coalition. That, in turn, would greatly =
enhance=20
Europe's capacity and will to pursue an independent policy.=20
<P>Fourth, the search for absolute security makes others absolutely =
insecure.=20
Any country actually or potentially viewed as a threat by the U.S. must, =
by=20
America's own logic, attempt to make itself safe by obtaining weapons of =
mass=20
destruction. This administration seems to care little about =
proliferation. But=20
it does care about proliferation into hostile hands.&nbsp; That seems =
more=20
likely to be accelerated than slowed by the policy of pre-emptive =
action: Mr=20
Hussein is to be destroyed; Kim Jong-il seems safe.&nbsp; The lesson =
cannot be=20
lost on tyrants.=20
<P>Last, the U.S. is also adopting the ancient maxim that enemies may =
hate as=20
long as they fear. Hatred and humiliation breed terrorism. It is as well =
that=20
the U.S. is readying itself for a long war on its enemies. It is no more =
likely=20
to crush terrorism by military means than Ariel Sharon is to achieve the =
same=20
aim for Israel.=20
<P>Now turn to the economic consequences. Many suppose that, after the =
war is=20
over, the uncertainties now bedevilling the world economy will lift, =
confidence=20
will return and the world economy will recover.=20
<P>That, I hope, is true. I fear it is not. One reason is that Mr =
Hussein may=20
damage the Iraqi oil fields, making an already tight oil market still =
tighter=20
and keeping prices high. Further military actions also seem conceivable. =

Conflict with Iran may follow; North Korea looms ahead. Beyond this, the =
U..S.=20
is in the grip of its post-bubble adjustment. While the corporate sector =
is some=20
way through, the household sector has hardly begun. Since Japan and =
Germany, the=20
world's second and third largest economies, are suffering from =
chronically weak=20
domestic demand, a strong global recovery is unlikely to lie on the =
other side.=20
<P>Yet there is a longer-term concern. The global economic order rests =
on=20
co-operation, above all in international trade. Even the U.S. cannot =
achieve=20
global prosperity on its own. Nor can it expect others to obey rules =
that it=20
refuses to follow itself. Here, then, it is bound by the idea of =
international=20
law. Yet how long will a country used to being unquestioned judge and =
jury in=20
its own cause accept the judgments of others in its economic life?=20
<P>This moment will shape our world, for good or ill, for years, maybe =
decades,=20
to come. But let me be clear. I am not arguing that the war is an error; =
strong=20
arguments can be made in its favour. I am not saying its opponents' =
position is=20
credible; they rely on the permanent presence of U.S. and UK armies. I =
am not=20
saying the Middle East does not need to be remade; it would be wonderful =
if it=20
could be.=20
<P>I am saying that if the U.S. behaves solely as a 19th-century power =
--- be it=20
liberal imperialist or nationalist --- of a kind it once abhorred, it =
will=20
promote a 19th-century world. Examples matter; great examples matter =
greatly.=20
The American people must ask themselves whether this truly is the world =
they=20
wish to inhabit. <BR>&nbsp;<B><FONT size=3D+2></FONT></B>=20
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