[AGL] Really Could be the final out

[Igor Loving]

Fiction is just as interesting as reality and the fiction is reality  so 
where do we go from here?  The average Joe in the street is uninformed of 
all this to be sure.

Hurricane Wilma may break the camel's back,

Avian Flu will for sure if it does mutate and we have another 1918.

If that hapens and the case fatality rate goes over 5% then society will 
breakdown temporarily. Food delivery, electric and water service and public 
order. (Katrina)

In 1918 there were 1.6 billion  people and 17% lived in the urban areas and 
there were 15 cities of over a million people.

Today there are 6.6 billlion people living in 400 cities over a million.

Doctor Gratttan Woodson in an interesting article (He us Medical Director of 
the Druid Oaks Health Center in Decatur, GA) says there is a 1 in 3 chance 
of the H5N1 virus crossing over to cause a major pandemic and a 2 in 3 of a 
minor one. And he even says it will most likely occure between Dec 2005 and 
March 2006. So he says it would be prudent to be self reliant for about 
three months.

According to WHO and the NCDC the required conditions are in place. The 
oldest nemesis to our health is influenza. The scientists have been looking 
at a super strain of the virus. The super strain could easilt cause the 100 
year flood  in what is usually a rountine flu outbreak. It will spread like 
wildfire as did the 1918 pandemic. It took the 1918 virus six weeks to 
spread from Europe to the U.S.

what can you do? Get a flu survival kit. There is a number 404 298 9951. The 
medication is Tamiflu 75mg #20 and you take two tablet a day for 5 days or 
10 days. The tablets cost $200 for 20 and are in short supply.

There is a chart in Sciamer that shows from a start of 40 infected people it 
takes 60 days to go go nation wide and inflect 33% of the population. That 
is what seems to be a conservative model, Some people say that 50% will be 
infected and that the death rate would stunning. The U.S. population is 
296,000,000 and with a case fatality rate of 0.25%  about 1,080,000 people 
would die. In the UK it would be 1,500,000 deaths.
World wide somewhere between 160,000,000 and 382,000,000 people would die 
according to an article in the New England Journal of Medicine by Dr M. 
Osterholm.

Of course this might not happen at all and like 2000 we will all give a sigh 
of relief and say boy what a bunch of crap that was.

Check out this month's Scientific American. sciam.com  and  
www.hhs.gov/nvpo/pandemics/index.html
look at www.who.int/csr/resources/influenza/WHO



Charlie Loving