[AGL] 2008 election

[Fontaine Maverick]

I love my fellow political junkie friends.

Before we can defeat McCain we have to get somebody nominated. This article in the Houston Chron is a pretty thorough analysis of the "arcane" texas delegate process (we have four kinds of delegates), and what elements are going to help Obama and which are going to help Clinton. Turns out the low turnout in South Texas in 04, the high turnout in 04 in East Texas will favor Obama. 

Texas delegate system makes the candidates choose their battles
For Democrats, previous elections come into play, so some districts are more valuable


By R.G. RATCLIFFE
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle Austin Bureau 

AUSTIN - Texas Democrats are dusting off their party's rules to figure out how Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama can use the state's complex primary and caucus system to win national convention delegates needed to secure the party's presidential nomination.

"Texas arguably has the most arcane system in the country," said state Rep. Juan Garcia, D-Corpus Christi, an Obama backer.

Texas hasn't had a highly contested presidential primary election since 1988, leading Garcia to say, "There are a lot of people scrambling to get smart on it in a hurry."

The state's Republican primary, held March 4, the same day as the Democratic primary, is not nearly as complicated - or as suspenseful, after Mitt Romney suspended his campaign last week, leaving John McCain as the party's likely presidential nominee.

But if the GOP race is still alive between McCain and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee when the primary arrives, they will find an equal number of nominating delegates available in each of the state's 32 congressional districts.

"That makes Sheila Jackson Lee's (D-Houston) district as important as Kevin Bailey's (R-The Woodlands) district," said GOP pollster Mike Baselice.

The Republican system also makes it possible for Rep. Ron Paul, R-Lake Jackson, to win delegates in his congressional district as well as in his state presidential campaign stronghold of Austin - even if his statewide vote total is low.

Since 1996, the winner of the Republican presidential primary has been a foregone conclusion by the time the Texas primary was held.

So, the selection of national convention delegates was of little interest to just about anyone in the state other than those wanting to attend the convention.


Splitting the win
The last time the Texas Democratic convention delegation was at stake in the midst of a national fight was in 1988, when Michael Dukakis, Jesse Jackson, Al Gore, Richard Gephardt and Gary Hart battled it out. 

Dukakis won the statewide primary with 33 percent of the vote, followed by Jackson at 25 percent, Gore at 20 percent and Gephardt at 14 percent.

Despite Dukakis' clear plurality victory, he split the state's delegates almost evenly with Jackson because of the Texas primary and caucus system. Dukakis took 72 delegates, Jackson 67. Forty-four were uncommitted.

"In '88, Jesse Jackson paid attention to the caucus process and had grass-roots organizers. Dukakis did not pay attention to the caucus process, and that's why he got out slightly maneuvered in the caucus process," said Garry Mauro, a former state land commissioner and Hillary Clinton supporter.

Put on your thinking cap. Here's a short version of how the Texas Democratic nominating process works. The party rules are 11 pages long.

A total of 126 delegates will be awarded based on the outcome of the vote in each of the 31 state senatorial districts.

But the number of delegates available in each district is not equal: Delegates are allocated based on the votes cast in districts in the 2004 and 2006 presidential and gubernatorial elections.


Fewer S. Texas delegates

In the heavily urban, African-American districts of state Sens. Rodney Ellis of Houston and Royce West of Dallas, a good voter turnout in the past two elections means a combined total of 13 delegates are at stake in the two districts on Election Day.

Obama nationally has been winning eight out of 10 black voters, according to network exit polls.

But in the heavily Hispanic districts of state Sens. Juan Hinojosa of McAllen and Eddie Lucio Jr. of Brownsville, election turnout was low, and a combined total of seven delegates are at stake.

Clinton has been taking six of 10 Hispanic votes nationally.

So, a big South Texas win might not mean as much for Clinton as a big win for Obama in the two black districts.

Three East Texas senatorial districts held by Republicans also could be fertile ground for both candidates.

The districts each have more than 250,000 voting-age African-Americans who might benefit Obama.

But Mauro noted that the Democratic voting population of East Texas is aging and that older voters tend to favor Clinton.

In the state senatorial district housing the University of Texas, where volunteers put together a 20,000-person rally for Obama last year, eight delegates are at stake in the primary election.


Not all decided by primary
Now, here's the really confusing part of the Democratic Party's process: 

An additional 42 at-large delegates are awarded at the state convention in June.

Those delegates are pledged to individual candidates based on participation that begins in precinct caucuses on election night and ends in senatorial district caucuses at the state convention.

The state convention also elects 35 superdelegates and an additional 25 pledged-party and elected-official delegates.

Garcia, the state representative and Obama supporter, said his candidate is bringing in the staffers who helped win the Iowa caucuses, knowing that not all is decided in the primary election.

"We're trying to be as savvy as possible in this primary-caucus process," Garcia said.

Mauro, the Clinton supporter, said Obama likes to talk about being a political organizer in Chicago.

But, Mauro said, when Clinton was Obama's age, she was organizing Texas for the 1972 presidential campaign of George McGovern.

"There are a lot of people who have long relationships with Hillary in Texas and are motivated," he said.


GOP rules differ
The Republican nominating process in Texas is far simpler. 

Three delegates are available in each of the state's 32 congressional districts for a total of 96. An additional 41 delegates are allotted on the basis of the statewide vote.

A candidate who gets more than 50 percent of the vote in each district wins all its delegates.

A plurality victor shares delegates with any second-place finisher who breaks a threshold of 20 percent of the vote.

In the 1996 GOP primary, Bob Dole received 56 percent of the vote statewide, but Patrick Buchanan still got two Texas delegates because he kept Dole to a plurality victory in two congressional districts.

Baselice, the Republican pollster, said surveys he has done in other races indicate that McCain will have an advantage in Texas' urban areas, while Huckabee will do better in the state's rural congressional districts.

Even before Romney dropped out, Baselice said, the former governor had little support in Texas.

Republican political consultant Wayne Hamilton said that if any candidate has some geographical advantage in Texas, it is Paul.


Looking for independents
He is facing a primary re-election challenge in his district that might stir his supporters to action, and Paul also has a strong volunteer organization in Austin. 

Paul's Austin volunteer leader, Paul Davis, said the Travis County organization is targeting independent voters from the last gubernatorial election.

"We're going after the Kinky Friendman folks and the Carole Keeton Strayhorn folks," he said.

rg.ratcliffe at chron.com 

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Gerry" <mesmo at gilanet.com>
To: "survivors' reminiscences about Austin Ghetto Daze in the 60s" <austin-ghetto-list at pairlist.net>
Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2008 1:23 PM
Subject: Re: [AGL] 2008 election



> Mike,

> Note the margins by which he won yesterday, veritable landslides, had to be

> some white men voting for him. If he wins Texas by such a margin, like

> 60-40, there will be no stopping him. Momentum!

> 

> Seems to me that McCain's close association with Bush will kill him. Obama's

> campaign strategists should be able to utilize a wide range of options to

> bury the old boy without insulting him (too much). I can see Bloomberg

> licking his chops. Of course his candidacy would do in McCain. Mitt spent

> $40M of his own cash. Bloomie has a lot more money than Mitt but not nearly

> as much name recognition or public persona.

> 

> Impossible to read Libertarian propaganda without agreeing with them much of

> the time--in spite of the obvious futility of their cause.

> G

> 

> 

> 

> 

> ----- Original Message ----- 

> From: "Michael Eisenstadt" <mike.eisenstadt at gmail.com>

> To: <austin-ghetto-list at pairlist.net>

> Sent: Sunday, February 10, 2008 11:57 AM

> Subject: [AGL] 2008 election

> 

> 

>> Obama with 5 or 6 others voted AGAINST Iraq war. This showed

>> courage and a stand against American imperialism.

>>

>> Ron Paul's only + is his anti-war stance. The rest of the stuff

>> in his brain case are all crazy notions. My favorite one is his

>> assertion that American money is illegal.

>>

>> McCain who of course voted for war will run on the absurd

>> claim that "we" are "winning."

>>

>> Every Texan should be sure to vote in the primary on March 4.

>>

>> Let's assume that somehow Obama gets the nomination.

>>

>> He has only 1 big minus as far as I reckon:  he is not a white man.

>> That will lose him millions of votes. If the dialectic of the

>> campaign develops that way, the election may be simply a vote

>> for or against Iraq. Then he may well win. And the jihadists in

>> Iraq and elsewhere will do their best to help Obama by showing

>> that "we" are not "winning."

>>

>>

>>

>>

>>

>>

>>

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