[AGL] what fun!

[Michael Eisenstadt]

What fun! A presidential election.

Prof. Alan Lichtman has successfully called recent elections and 
famously predicted that Trump would win in 2016.
Currently he predicts that Biden will win in a blow-out. His best 
indicator is the state of the economy. If the economy is doing poorly 
even a sitting president will lose. For example, Carter in 1980. Seeing 
as the economy was booming before the pandemic, that would have secured 
Trump's reelection. But the economy is not booming therefore Biden wins. 
Could be. Of course the pandemic might be a black swan effect.

The Trafalgar Group, a polling company, also correctly predicted 2016. I 
have been checking their polls daily. They are only covering a select 
number of states. See attached. I am guessing that their rationale for 
this selection is that those states are the bellwethers of the outcome. 
Their earlier poll of Minnesota had Biden over Trump 49 to 44. Their 
later poll of Minnesota had Biden 46.9 to Trump 46.5 from some weeks 
ago.  Check the Trafalgar predictions yourself at 
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/

If Trump carries the nothern tier of post-industrial states, Ohio, 
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota - and all the red states 
in the south and mid-west, Florida, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Alabama, 
South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, 
Indiana, the Dakotas, Montana, Idaho he will be re-elected. Nevada is a 
toss-up which is why Trump just campaigned there. New Mexico, Colorado 
and Virginia will go for Biden.
The dates of these polls is significant.

The Trafalgar Group just added a North Carolina presidential poll 
conducted 09/09/20 - 09/11/20, just a week ago. It has Trump at 47.8% 
and Biden at 46.1. If correct, as NC was a toss-up recently, it suggests 
that as the race is tightening up the trend is towards Trump.

Trump voters are fully aware of Trump's glaring deficiencies, the most 
salient that he is a practiced liar. OTOH, of those issues Trump claims 
to be pursuing, these standout: no illegal immigration, winddown foreign 
wars, preside over booming economy, lower taxes, reduce needless 
bureaucratic regulation, pacifiy North Korea, reject the notion that the 
American polity practices systemic racism and others. Can it be that in 
spite of his offensive persona, voters will hold their nose and vote 
their interests and convictions?

Wife Madelon is unhappy with Trump's laissez-faire attitude towards the 
environment. I keep reminding her that the US has reduced its carbon 
footprint very significantly in recent years: natural gas replacing 
coal, etc. And that it is India and China who are the world's great 
polluters.

Biden has warned voters that if Trump is reelected, America witll burn 
down. Trump points out that forest management, i.e. removing the fuel, 
is the solution whether or not the climate is warming. We learn that 
feather Indians practiced forest managment to some extent before the 
palefaces came and that forest fires back then consumed far more acreage 
than the fires currently burning in the west.

Thank you for your time.


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